The return, the margin and the swings

RTP and the house edge: what a 97% return means over many rounds

A return figure says how much of all stakes a game gives back over very many rounds. Here we work out what that means for your balance, and why one evening can end quite differently.

RTP and the house edge are two sides of the same figure. RTP, «return to player», is the share of all stakes that goes back to the players over time. The house edge is the rest, that is the part the game keeps. If it says a 97% return, the house edge is 3%.

The figures are easy to read but easy to misunderstand. They apply to an enormous number of rounds, not to your session, and they say nothing about how large the swings get along the way. This page shows both with figures. Which operators these figures actually apply to can be seen in the full overview on the home page of Kryptospill.

A worked example with a 1% house edge: the multiplier is 99 divided by the chance in per cent. Halving the chance roughly doubles the payout, while the expected loss per stake stays at 1% whichever target value you choose.

The definitions: RTP and the house edge

RTP (return to player): the sum of all possible outcomes multiplied by the probability of each outcome, expressed as a percentage of the stake.
The house edge: 100% minus the RTP. That is the expected cost per stake.
Turnover: the sum of all the stakes you have placed, not the balance you started with.
Variance: how much individual results spread around the average.

An example worked out by us: a dice game pays 2× when you hit an outcome with a 49.5% probability. The expected return is 0.495 × 2 = 0.99, so a 99% RTP and a 1% house edge. How such a target value is chosen in practice is in the explanation of the dice round.

What a 97% return means

Spribe gives a return of 97% for Aviator on the studio's own game page (spribe.co/games/aviator, opened on 15 September 2026). Other crash titles sit in the same area: SmartSoft Gaming gives 96.2–98.9% for JetX, and Turbo Games 96% for both Crash X and Aero.

These are the studios' long-run statements. The casino may have set the game up differently from the studio's description, so the figure in the game's information menu is the one that applies where you play. More on the plane round is on the page about Aviator.

The figure does not mean you get 97 kroner back out of 100. It means that the sum of all stakes from all players, over very many rounds, approaches 97% back. For you it means an expected cost of 3% of what you turn over. Play Aviator with 0.0005 BTC per round over 400 rounds and you have turned over 0.2 BTC, and the expected cost is then 0.006 BTC. That is an example we have worked out, not a result anyone can promise you, in either direction.

A worked example for sixteen rows where each pin sends the ball left or right with equal chance. Almost every drop lands near the middle; the large multipliers at the edges are rarely hit, and that is why they can be large.

The house edge in crash games and limbo

In games where you choose a target, the house edge can be read straight out of the probability. With a 1% house edge the chance of reaching a target is roughly 0.99 divided by the target. An example worked out by us:

Target 2×: roughly a 49.5% chance.
Target 10×: roughly a 9.9% chance.
Target 100×: roughly a 0.99% chance.

The expected return is 99% in all three cases, because the chance multiplied by the target gives 0.99. What you are choosing, then, is not the price but how unevenly the results come. The round and the stopping point are explained more closely in the walk-through of the crash curve.

Turnover decides the bill

The most common mistake is to set the house edge against the deposit. It should be set against the turnover.

A worked example: the same balance, different turnover

The figures are an example, worked out by us. You have 0.01 BTC and put 0.0001 BTC per round:

100 rounds: turnover 0.01 BTC. With a 3% house edge the expected cost is 0.0003 BTC. At 1% it is 0.0001 BTC.
1,000 rounds: turnover 0.1 BTC. Expected cost 0.003 BTC at 3% and 0.001 BTC at 1%.
5,000 rounds: turnover 0.5 BTC. At 3% the expected cost is 0.015 BTC, that is more than the whole balance you started with.

Winnings are typically put back in, and so the turnover can become many times larger than the deposit. That is why two players with the same balance and the same game can have completely different expected costs after an evening: one took twenty rounds, the other took two thousand. House games with autoplay, such as the ball board with rows and risk levels, make rounds pile up in a short time.

Variance: why one session does not follow the average

The house edge says where the average lies. The variance says how far from the average you can end up. To see it we use the dice example above, with 1 unit staked per round: you win 1 unit with a 49.5% probability and lose 1 unit otherwise.

Per round the expected result is −0.01 units, and the standard deviation is roughly 1 unit.
After 100 rounds: expected −1 unit, standard deviation roughly 10 units. The swings are ten times larger than the expected cost.
After 10,000 rounds: expected −100 units, standard deviation roughly 100 units. Now they are the same size.
After 1,000,000 rounds: expected −10,000 units, standard deviation roughly 1,000 units. The house edge dominates completely.

This explains why many come out ahead on a single evening, while the result over very many rounds approaches the house edge. It also explains why a return figure cannot be used as a promise for a session.

High variance with the same RTP

Two games can have exactly the same RTP and behave quite differently. A target of 2× is hit roughly every other time. A target of 100× with the same house edge is hit on average around once per hundred rounds, and long runs with no hit are entirely normal. In mines the same happens when you open many tiles before cashing out. The return figure is the same, but the experience and the risk of emptying the balance are very different.

What RTP and the house edge do not tell you

The figures give a good picture of the price, but they do not cover everything:

Whether the round was locked. That a round was not altered is a question for the seed check, described in the walk-through of the server seed and the client seed.
Whether the win comes out of the account. Caps per period, instalments and document requirements are in the terms, not in the game.
A ceiling on winnings. A ceiling on what one round can pay cuts off the largest outcomes without that necessarily showing in the percentage.
The pace. A game with 99% played very fast can cost more per hour than a game with 97% played slowly.

A bonus and a wagering requirement as arithmetic

Bonuses and deposits with wagering requirements also get easier to weigh up when you think in turnover. Vave writes in its terms (cl. 8.11, read on 25 August 2026) that the deposit has to be turned over three times in the casino or live casino, or once on sport, before it can be withdrawn.

A worked example: three times the deposit

The figures are an example from us. You deposit 100 USDT and play casino:

Required turnover: 3 × 100 = 300 USDT.
At a 97% return the expected cost is 3% of 300, so 9 USDT.
At a 99% return the expected cost is 1% of 300, so 3 USDT.

The variance applies here too. You can end far above or below these figures before the requirement is met.

On Vave's promotion page (read on 24 August 2026) it says 150% on the first deposit up to 1.5 BTC plus 100 free spins. For the second, third and fourth deposits the percentages are 100%, 50% and 25%. No wagering factor for the bonus itself is given there. When the factor is not stated, you cannot work out the cost either until you have found it in the terms. Vave stands outside the ranking, with no score.

How to use the figures

Find the return figure in the game's information menu where you play, not just on the studio's page.
Calculate in turnover. The stake per round × the number of rounds × the house edge gives the expected cost.
Choose the variance deliberately. High targets give rare hits and long losing runs, even with the same RTP.
Read the wagering requirements before you accept a bonus, and work them out.
Check the account rules. The return in the game says nothing about ID checks and withdrawal caps. The twelve operators we have worked through stand with their files in the list of crypto casinos.

Set a limit for time and amount before you start. The house edge is a cost you pay for entertainment, not an investment. If you notice it becoming hard to stop, you can call or write to Hjelpelinjen via hjelpelinjen.no, which is free. The age limit is 18.

Frequently asked questions

What is the difference between RTP and the house edge?

They express the same thing from opposite sides. RTP is the share of the stakes that goes back to the players on average, and the house edge is the share the game keeps. They always add up to 100%. A game with a 97% RTP has a 3% house edge. The house edge is often easiest to use in calculations, because it directly gives the expected cost per stake when you multiply it by your turnover.

Does a 97% RTP mean I lose 3% in a session?

No. The figure applies over very many rounds. In a single session you can end up clearly ahead or lose much more than 3%. In our worked example with a game at 2×, the swings after 100 rounds are roughly ten times larger than the expected cost. Only after many thousands of rounds does the result begin to resemble the house edge.

Is a game with a higher RTP always cheaper to play?

Per stake, yes. But the cost also depends on how much you turn over. Play a game with 99% at a high pace and with autoplay, and it can cost more per hour than a game with 97% that you play slowly. If you want to keep the cost down, the number of rounds and the size of the stake matter as much as the percentage.

How do I calculate a wagering requirement?

Multiply the amount that has to be turned over by the number of times the requirement states, and multiply the result by the house edge. At Vave the deposit has to be turned over three times in the casino before a withdrawal (cl. 8.11). With a 100 USDT deposit that is 300 USDT of turnover, and at a 97% return the expected cost is 9 USDT. Remember that the variance can give a quite different outcome.